[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices continued to rebound on August 12, with China and the US issuing a joint statement on the Stockholm economic and trade talks

SMM Nickel News on August 12:

Macro News:

(1) Joint Statement on the China-US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks: The governments of China and the US will take the following measures before August 12, 2025: The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff increase on Chinese goods for 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff; China will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff increase on US goods for 90 days and suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the US.

(2) The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration are soliciting public comments on the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)." Among other things, it will refine and clarify tax elements such as taxpayers and taxable scope as stipulated in the VAT Law; clarify the scope related to exported goods, cross-border sales of services, and intangible assets as stipulated in the VAT Law, and provide detailed explanations on the applicable rules for scenarios involving multiple tax rates and collection rates; specifically refine the relevant clauses in the VAT Law regarding taxable amounts, including methods and rules for input tax credit, and the scope of input tax that cannot be credited.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price is 122,300-122,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,400 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,000-2,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2509) rebounded strongly after a low opening in the night session, closing at 122,430 yuan/mt, up 0.66%. Today, it continued to open higher and move higher, with the intraday gain expanding to 0.85% as of the midday session.

The nickel price rebound is mainly driven by expectations of loose liquidity and easing trade frictions, but geopolitical and policy uncertainties, as well as high inventory pressure, limit the gains. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate amid the tug-of-war between weak fundamentals and macro sentiment support, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.